WASHINGTON — Rocket Lab expects to resume Electron launches in late November after concluding a “largely improbable” combination of events caused the vehicle’s previous launch to fail.
The corporate said Nov. 8 that it’s targeting a return to flight of Electron no sooner than Nov. 28 from the corporate’s Launch Complex 1 in Latest Zealand. The rocket will carry a radar imaging satellite for Japanese company iQPS on a dedicated mission.
Electron has been grounded since a Sept. 19 launch failure when the second stage engine appeared to shut down moments after ignition. The corporate said Oct. 25 it was preparing to return to flight later within the quarter after getting authorization from the Federal Aviation Administration to resume launches, but didn’t disclose details of the continuing investigation.
In an earnings call to debate the corporate’s third quarter financial results, Rocket Lab Chief Executive Peter Beck said the failure happened quickly, with just one.6 seconds of knowledge from the primary indication of an issue with the vehicle to the lack of telemetry. “This was all the time going to be a highly complex issue to determine,” he said.
Detailed evaluation of the telemetry that was available led engineers to conclude that there was an “unexpected electrical arc” inside the power supply for the upper stage. That shorted the battery packs that power the upper stage, causing a lack of power.
Beck said that arc was the results of several aspects. That included a “ripple voltage” in the facility system, the presence of traces of helium gas and an “undetectable” flaw in insulation in the facility system. Those aspects combined, under conditions governed by a relationship called Paschen’s Law, to create the arc.
“If any of these items weren’t present, the failure wouldn’t have occurred,” he said. “So many things needed to line up that almost all people would say that the probability of this occurring could be largely improbable.”
He said the corporate is taking two steps to stop such a situation, nevertheless improbable, from happening again. One is to boost ground testing of the upper stage to higher detect potential arcing problems. Rocket Lab can even pressurize the upper stage’s battery frame section enough to stop arcing conditions from forming. That latter measure is a “brute force solution,” he said, but was confident it might solve the issue.
The launch for iQPS is the primary of two Electron launches that Rocket Lab has planned for the quarter. The corporate expects to roughly double its launch activity next 12 months, with a current manifest of twenty-two launches, including two of a suborbital version of Electron called HASTE. Beck said that it’s “completely booked” for Electron next 12 months, but that there could also be opportunities to herald recent customers if existing customers suffer delays.
“Now we have a totally sold-out manifest for next 12 months at a number that is admittedly solid,” he said, referring to the typical launch cost of every Electron. The corporate has a goal price of $7.5 million for every Electron, with some variability depending on the main points of the mission.
The corporate suggested it might use the high demand for Electron to lift prices. “As we move forward, we’re actually seeing an environment that permits us to drive for firmer pricing,” said Adam Spice, chief financial officer, throughout the call. “As considered one of the few truly operational launch providers, we do see pricing power coming in our direction, so we expect that, long term, we are going to see upward movement” in the typical Electron price.
The corporate reported $67.7 million in revenue within the quarter and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) lack of $15.5 million. Spice noted positive trends in each revenues and gross margins which are expected to proceed into 2024 with the rise in Electron launches and because it begins to deliver Globalstar satellites under a contract with MDA.
Those trends put the corporate on a course to profitability, but Spice didn’t forecast when which may occur. “By way of when we will get to adjusted EBITDA breakeven, Neutron investment, especially R&D spend, continues to be the pacing item,” he said.
Neutron is the larger reusable launch vehicle Rocket Lab is developing. Beck said work on that’s going well, with several recent milestones on tanks and structures for the rocket in addition to its Archimedes engine. He said there have been no revisions to the previous schedule, which calls for having the primary Neutron “on the pad” by the tip of 2024.
“We still have a major amount of capital to eat in getting Neutron to the pad by the tip of next 12 months. We’re well-funded to try this,” Spice said.