On May 19, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the country would help train and support the transfer by European allies of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. However the F-16s are older aircraft that may should be replaced in only a number of years, so some consideration must be paid now to what’s next for the Ukraine Air Force.
The present plan is to start training experienced Ukrainian pilots while European nations begin to send aircraft from their existing inventories. A lot of these aircraft were purchased within the Eighties. Most have received some upgrades, reminiscent of modern networking equipment, allowing aircraft to share targeting data with each other (generally known as Link 16). Nevertheless, these aircraft do not need the most recent sensors and electronic protections.
Many NATO members fly the F-16 and are ordering latest aircraft — mainly the F-35 — to exchange their aging fleets. F-35s are slow to reach, nevertheless, meaning that only a handful nations are prepared now to supply aircraft.
The F-16 is designed to fly as much as 8,000 hours. They typically fly between 200 and 350 hours a 12 months in peace time. Likely aircraft going to Ukraine could have as much as 7,000 hours of flight time. Thus, while F-16s might offer improved capabilities in comparison with Ukraine’s Soviet-era fleet, they are going to should be replaced in perhaps 4 to 6 years.
One option may be to supply Ukraine with latest F-16 Block 70s. This selection would keep Ukraine within the F-16 ecosystem — streamlining each training and sustainment — and offer the most recent software, radar and electronic protection technologies. It will also allow Ukraine to proceed using the weapons it has been given. But this feature could be expensive and take years, and the U.S. would surely bear the fee relatively than sharing it with allies.
Challenges with latest F-16s
Recent F-16 Foreign Military Sales cases to Bulgaria and Slovakia illustrate the fee of recent fighters — nearly $200 million per aircraft. F-16 flight packages include initial stockpiles of parts, munitions and training. Ukraine says it intends to obtain between 40 and 100 aircraft. Low-end estimates would amount to $8 billion. With funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative running out soon, latest aircraft, because the Department of Defense has said, might break the bank.
F-16s also cost a considerable amount to operate. In accordance with a recent Government Accountability Office report, operating one F-16 costs $4.6 million a 12 months, or $184 million for a fleet of 40 aircraft. Ukraine’s Air Force budget in 2020 was nearly $1.1 billion, which included support for about 70 older, former Soviet fighters.
Time delays are one other major consideration. Lockheed Martin moved the F-16 production line from Fort Value, Texas, to Greenville, South Carolina. This required each training a brand new cohort of staff to provide the aircraft and the installation of machine tooling.
Slovakia, for instance, placed orders for F-16s in 2018, but its first delivery will occur only in 2024, or five to 6 years from contract award to aircraft delivery.
Are there other options?
European allies may receive F-35s over a period of some years. This implies they might proceed for a while to transfer used F-16s, allowing Ukraine access to a flow of those aircraft for a decade or more. This selection would allow for continued allied burden-sharing.
This also is smart in a strategic context since Russia’s war on Ukraine could also be viewed as an existential challenge to European security.
There may be other options for combat fighters, reminiscent of the Saab Gripen, the Dassault Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon.
The Gripen is pricey to purchase but cheaper to operate than the F-16. Lately, Rafale aircraft have outsold F-16s on the international market, implying improved capabilities. The Eurofighter might offer essentially the most advanced capabilities in comparison with the opposite options.
These aircraft could possibly be available before latest F-16s and might offer some improved capabilities in comparison with older F-16s. Introducing multiple Western combat aircraft into Ukraine’s Air Force might offer some improved capabilities, but at the fee of sustainment and training challenges.
Europeans could also be unlikely to finance the supply of recent aircraft for Ukraine, but may be willing to supply used aircraft. Ukraine could find yourself with a used fleet of multiple aircraft with different maintenance, repair and overhaul requirements.
It’s encouraging that Ukraine might receive F-16s to enhance its combat capabilities. Over the long term, Ukraine may seek a seamless flow of used F-16s and possibly of a number of European combat fighters. Western policymakers might begin considering now about what the Ukrainian Air Force may require in the longer term, especially if the Russian threat stays acute.
John Hoehn is an associate policy researcher on the Rand think tank and a former military analyst with the Congressional Research Service. William Courtney is an adjunct senior fellow at Rand and former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia.