- The US Air Force says it must “rethink” the concept of air superiority in future wars.
- Unlike other post-Cold War conflicts, a war with China could find Air Force planes outnumbered.
- The service could find itself trying different tactics to determine air superiority when it needs it essentially the most, no less than for a little bit while.
Because the end of the Cold War, the Air Force has been the five hundred pound gorilla in any conflict, quickly gaining control of the air. But what if there’s one other 500 pound gorilla on the opposite side, and even 1,000 pound pound gorilla? The US Air Force must change the way it fights to adapt to a brand new strategic environment, one through which it just isn’t robotically the strongest air force within the fight.
Air Superiority Threatened
In line with Air & Space Forces Magazine, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin told an audience that the times of the service having fun with air superiority from the skin of a future conflict are over. Allvin stated that it was “cost prohibitive… to construct enough Air Force to do it the way in which we did before and have air superiority for days and weeks on end”.
The Air Force defines air superiority as “that degree of control of the air by one force that allows the conduct of its operations at a given time and place without prohibitive interference from air and missile threats.”
In other words, the Air Force can undertake whatever mission it wants, however the enemy remains to be operating and a mission could take losses. The subsequent step up is air supremacy, which is described as “that degree of control of the air wherein the opposing force is incapable of effective interference inside the operational area using air and missile threats.”
The Vietnam War is an example of a war through which the Air Force had air superiority, facing the numerically inferior North Vietnamese air force and air defenses. The Air Force could conduct missions anywhere it wanted, nevertheless it still needed fighters to guard bombers and to suppress enemy air defenses to avoid serious losses.
The war in Afghanistan, however—where the Taliban had no fighters or air defenses in any respect, and where bombers just like the B-1B Lancer could fly missions without other jets performing escort or air defense suppression—was an example of air supremacy.
Cold War Dividend
The US Air Force was the second largest Air Force on the earth at the tip of the Cold War, having been built as much as fight the Soviet Union and its allies. The collapse of the us in 1991 left the USAF the strongest air force on the earth by far. Within the 1991 Gulf War, the 1999 NATO intervention in Yugoslavia, the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Air Force was in a position to quickly claim air superiority and, in some cases, air supremacy.
The side with air superiority enjoys all types of advantages. Air superiority means troops on the front don’t must consistently worry about enemy planes bombing them. The US Air Force notes with satisfaction that until recently, April fifteenth, 1953 was the last time US troops were killed by a manned enemy aircraft.
It implies that supplies can flow unimpeded into nearby airfields, and that wounded troops may be evacuated by air. Reconnaissance aircraft can fly missions over enemy territory and provides everyone a greater picture of the battlefield, friendly ground forces can call for close air support missions on the front lines, and bombers and attack planes can strike farther afield to empty the enemy’s combat power on the front.
The Next War
The Air Force believes that the following major war may very well be against China. This could be a large fight—on land, at sea, and within the air—across East Asia and the Western Pacific Ocean, stretching for 1000’s of miles. The Air Force would fly from bases scattered across the region, including Guam within the Pacific; Yokota, Kadena, and Misawa in Japan; and other bases in Korea, the Philippines, and Australia. America would also fly bombers directly from the continental U.S. into combat within the Western Pacific, and even against targets in mainland China.
The Air Force can be increase forces to support such a war. The service continues to interchange the F-16 Fighting Falcon with the F-35 Lightning II, is buying no less than 72 recent F-15EX Super Eagle fighters, and is developing a F-22 Raptor substitute—the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter—in secret. The Air Force may even buy no less than 100, and sure near 200, recent B-21 Raider bombers able to flying missions into contested airspace. As well as, the service is investing in recent KC-46 Pegasus tankers, and is planning an all-new, stealthy tanker to refuel fighters and bombers near the front line.
On the opposite side of the Pacific, China is increase its fleet of J-20 stealth fighters, adding more J-10 and Su-35 strike fighters, and developing the FC-31 stealth fighter. Nevertheless, China’s large variety of bases and aircraft implies that the closer the fighting is to China, the more aircraft the country can put into the air at any given time. Inside 500 miles of China, the Air Force will risk operating at a numerical drawback.
A Never-Ending Threat
In recent conflicts, the Air Force (and Navy) typically blitz already inferior enemy air and ground defenses in the primary days of the war, crippling their ability to fight. These early days are characterised by cruise missile strikes—against airfields, command nodes, and control nodes—in addition to fighter sweeps, searching the skies for enemy fighters, and air defense suppression missions against radar and surface to air missile sites. Once enemy air defenses are neutralized, the Air Force can then go after a full range of targets.
In the following war, the Air Force could also be forced to attack necessary targets immediately that was once off-limits until it gained air superiority, because it’s going to never gain air superiority against China. Sheer numbers and China’s ability to regenerate its defenses—by producing more radars just like the H-200 PESA radar, surface to air missiles just like the long range HQ-9, and fighters of every kind—implies that the country will all the time be a formidable adversary within the air. In those cases, the Air Force might need to just accept losses with a purpose to get the job done. In other situations, the U.S. Air Force may temporarily gain the upper hand, but China’s shifting of resources from one side of the immense country to the opposite may tip the balance back in its favor.
The Takeaway
The U.S. Air Force can’t afford to construct its way into superiority against China, no less than during peacetime. In wartime, it’s going to don’t have any selection, nevertheless it could also be too late by then. The Air Force, and the remainder of the Pentagon, could have to once more get used to the thought of fighting—and winning—outnumbered.