MANILA, Philippines — The outcomes of Indonesia’s recent presidential election may very well be a boon for military modernization programs, as the present defense minister is within the lead, an authority told Defense News.
The Feb. 14 presidential election saw Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto garner nearly 60% of the votes, as of March 5. Since assuming the post in 2019, Prabowo has pushed for large-scale military modernization and increases in defense spending, despite the COVID-19 pandemic hitting Indonesia’s economy and partially reversing poverty-reduction measures, in line with the World Bank.
Collin Koh, a senior fellow on the Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said Indonesia has consistently built up its defense for the reason that term of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, first elected in 2004. And given Prabowo’s background, he’ll likely support continued military modernization efforts, Koh added.
“In some ways, one may argue that he is perhaps more obsessed with it,” he said.
But given the country’s fiscal state and the dimensions of modernization the military requires, Prabowo might only give you the option to finish programs already within the works quite than start recent ones, Koh added.
Prabowo was a lieutenant general and commander of the special forces generally known as Kopassus that were blamed for human rights abuses, including the torture of twenty-two activists who had opposed Suharto, the authoritarian leader whose 1998 downfall amid massive protests restored democracy in Indonesia.
Human rights groups have claimed that Prabowo was also involved in a series of human rights violations in Timor-Leste within the Nineteen Eighties and Nineties, when Indonesia occupied the now-independent nation. Prabowo has denied those allegations. The alleged human rights abuses led to Prabowo being forced out of the military, and he was dishonorably discharged in 1998.
Orders and hiccups
Indonesia has pivoted toward naval and air modernization efforts. In 2021, it signed a take care of Airbus realted to A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport aircraft, anti-submarine and transport helicopters, and A400M transport planes. The helicopters are already in service, and the Defense Ministry finalized orders for 2 A400M aircraft in January. The A330 acquisition stays under discussion, company officials told Defense News.
In 2022, the federal government ordered 42 Dassault Rafale fighter jets for $8.1 billion, and it most recently accomplished orders for the last 18 jets in January 2024.
In August 2023, the federal government signed a memorandum of understanding with Boeing to amass 24 F-15EX jets, and it also placed orders for Sikorsky S-70M Black Hawk helicopters.
The Defense Ministry also signed a contract to purchase a $100 million submarine rescue vessel from the UK, and it’s reportedly in talks for 2 more Scorpene submarines from France’s Naval Group.
While President Joko Widodo last yr approved roughly 139.3 trillion rupiahs (U.S. $8.9 billion) in defense spending for 2024 — a 20% increase from the prior budget — the federal government still needs more to fulfill its military modernization goals.
And the country appears to be falling behind. Under its Minimum Essential Force policy, the federal government is to finish a listing of military upgrades and asset procurements the top of the presidential term, which is October 2024.
As of September 2023, the Air Force had met 51% of its goals, the Army 60% and the Navy 76%, in line with Evan Laksmana, Southeast Asia military expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.
The issue, Koh said, is that while Indonesia did list specific assets and capabilities under its policy, it had not provided enough specifications for planners to further the country’s goals.
Moreover, Indonesia’s pivot to naval and air modernization might cause an uproar within the Army, which has traditionally received the lion’s share of the budget pie. The Army has been clamoring for artillery and land systems amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Koh said.
“The Air Force may have a tougher time lately and in the longer term in the case of competing with funding with the Army,” he explained.
For instance, Indonesia reportedly scrapped a deal to purchase 12 used Dassault Mirage 2000-5 jets from Qatar to switch its retiring F-5 fleet. Public backlash pushed the federal government to desert the plan days ahead of the Feb. 14 presidential election.
Indonesia can be behind on payments for a joint program with South Korea. The countries agreed to co-fund the KF-21 Boramae fighter jet program.
When asked for an update, Sangshin Park, a regional manager for KF-21 manufacturer Korea Aerospace Industries, told Defense News: “We also don’t know what’s going to occur, and we’re still waiting.”
Edna Tarigan and Achmad Ibrahim with The Associated Press contributed to this story.
Leilani Chavez is an Asia correspondent for Defense News. Her reporting expertise is in East Asian politics, development projects, environmental issues and security.