SAN FRANCISCO – Because the annular solar eclipse drew widespread public attention, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration leaders gathered on the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta were considering their very own solar observations.
“Ultimately, as NASA and NOAA work with European partners to construct out a system that’s able to observing the sun from different perspectives, we’ll improve our models and ultimately improve our forecasts of solar activity and the impacts here on Earth,” Michael Morgan, assistant secretary of Commerce for Environmental Remark and Prediction, told
For the moment, NOAA’s primary instrument for observing the sun is well past its prime.
“What might keep me awake at night could be losing the present coronagraph,” said Bill Murtagh, program coordinator for NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. The LASCO coronagraph on the European Space Agency-NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory launched in 1995 stays “vital for our prediction capability,” Murtagh said.
Fortunately, replacements are on the best way.
Compact Coronagraphs
First up is the Compact Coronagraph, one in every of the instruments on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series GOES-U satellite scheduled to launch in April on a Falcon Heavy rocket. The Compact Coronagraph will observe the sun’s outer atmosphere and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
A second Compact Coronagraph will fly on NOAA’s Space Weather Follow-On satellite. The SWFO-L1 satellite will travel to sun-Earth Lagrange Point L-1 on NASA’s Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe in 2025.
“The upgraded capability and resilience” will improve measurements of solar activity, said Elsayed Talaat, director of NOAA’s Office of Space Weather Observations.
Each coronagraphs are sorely needed for space weather warnings, Murtagh added. “I cannot construct a warning system that relies on a single system. We would like redundancy.”
Sharing Observations
A partnership with the European Space Agency will provide additional observations of solar flares and CMEs for NOAA models and forecasts.
Solar activity presents “a world threat that requires a world response,” Murtagh. “The U.S. can’t go it alone.”
ESA’s Vigil mission, formerly called Lagrange, is predicted begin its journey to Lagrange Point 5 in 2029. Vigil observations taken 60 degrees off the sun-Earth line will complement measurements from SWFO L-1.
“Combined, they’ll give us that multidimensional perspective. We’ll know if and when CMEs will hit the Earth,” Murtagh said. “This is a crucial input into the models.”
Solar Maximum
Solar activity affects satellites and terrestrial infrastructure like the facility grid.
“We’re evolving technology at a unprecedented pace,” Murtagh said. “After we introduce latest systems, latest technologies, latest processes, we frequently introduce latest vulnerabilities to space weather that we don’t fully understand until unlucky things occur” just like the lack of 40 SpaceX Starlink satellites in February 2022 after “a comparatively minor geomagnetic storm.”
The present 11-year solar cycle, expected to peak in 2025.
“Having more reliable space weather information will help,” Talaat said. “Statistically, we see the most important storms on the downslope of solar maximum.”
Regarding the present solar cycle, it might be worse. When measured by sunspots, solar activity has been ramping up “faster and stronger” than expected, Murtagh said. “But we haven’t had any high-level storms hitting Earth. There’s been lots of them just missing us. We’ve seen some great eruptions which have not been Earth-directed.”