PARIS — Delivery disruptions for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter are making a headache for European buyers, as some countries face a possible capability gap and delays in training pilots and maintenance engineers.
Denmark is exploring how one can cope with a slipping delivery schedule, including possibly borrowing or buying aircraft from other F-35 users. Norway said there’s a risk full operational capability of its F-35 fleet shall be pushed back.
F-35 deliveries are on hold as Lockheed Martin wrestles to finish an upgrade often known as Technology Refresh 3, initially planned for summer 2023. While the corporate still goals for the second quarter for TR-3 software acceptance, the third quarter is a more likely scenario, Lockheed Martin CEO Jim Taiclet said in January.
The delays threaten to frustrate plans by Denmark and Belgium to exchange their fleets of greater than 40-year old F-16 fighters. Denmark has 4 F-35s in country, of 27 ordered, while Belgium is scheduled to receive the primary of 34 stealth fighters in 2024, a milestone already delayed from last yr.
“We’re making progress toward delivering the primary TR-3 configured aircraft,” Lockheed Martin said in a press release, declining to say when European buyers will get their next planes. “Customer deliveries shall be informed based on the remaining TR-3 test schedule.”
Denmark said last week that Lockheed Martin targets TR-3 for around July, but risks delays. It’s too early to say what delays would mean, the country’s defense minister said.
For now, Denmark still conducts operational tasks with F-16 aircraft, “but when the delay in F-35 delivery continues, there could be consequences,” said Hans Peter Michaelsen, an independent military analyst and former Royal Danish Air Force major.
The snag comes at a time of high tension in Europe, following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO fighter jets scrambled greater than 300 times last yr to intercept Russian military flights, mostly over the Baltic Sea, after 570 intercepts in 2022. The U.K., Norway, the Netherlands and Italy have deployed their F-35s for air-policing missions over the Baltic and the northern Atlantic.
The Danish Ministry of Defence has asked the joint military command and its procurement organization “to explore plenty of options that might mitigate the implications to the Danish F-35 implementation timeline in case a delay should occur,” it said in a press release.
Options include repatriating a few of Denmark’s six F-35s now stationed at Luke Air Force Base within the U.S. for training, possibly with support from other nations so Danish pilot instruction can proceed. One other could be buying or borrowing aircraft from other F-35 operators.
“If the planned F-35 deliveries slip to 2025 and Danish F-35s can’t be temporarily withdrawn from Luke AFB, I foresee operational and training consequences,” Michaelsen said. While he doesn’t expect Quick Response Alert tasks to be affected, having only 4 aircraft in Denmark could complicate maintaining operational status for pilots and technicians.
The defense ministry has investigated whether the U.S. can provide additional F-35s for training, which might allow Denmark to withdraw planes from Luke AFB to avoid a delay increase its F-35 capability, based on the analyst.
Norway and the Netherlands face less urgency, as they already operate most of their F-35 fleet. The Royal Norwegian Air Force retired its F-16s in 2022, and the Royal Dutch Air Force plans to do the identical by October.
Norway has “enough aircraft available to satisfy current operational and training requirements,” said Endre Lunde, an adviser on the Norwegian Defense Materiel Agency. “Just like the U.S. and other partners within the JSF program we won’t be taking delivery of any further aircraft until an answer has been found to current issues related to the TR-3 upgrades.”
Norway has 34 F-35s in country and 6 within the U.S. for training, of a complete 52 planes ordered. Delivery of the remaining aircraft, originally scheduled for 2023 and 2024, stays to be confirmed.
The Netherlands meanwhile has received 39 of its 52 F-35s, with eight aircraft within the U.S. for training. The Dutch Ministry of Defence declined to comment ahead of a progress report back to parliament toward the top of this month.
“For Norway and Netherlands I don’t foresee large consequences, as each countries have already achieved limited operational status with their F-35s, but the total operational date will probably slip to the best,” Michaelsen said. “A delay in delivery for other European customers – Belgium, Finland, Poland and Germany – will probably mean that these countries may have to operate their legacy fighters for a protracted time.”
The U.S. Air Force conducted the first flight of an F-35 in TR-3 configuration in January 2023. The upgrade provides the F-35 with more computing power as the premise for modernized Block 4 capabilities, including latest sensors and improved electronic warfare capabilities.
“Even after TR-3 completion we expect that it should take a while to clear the backlog of undelivered aircraft,” Lunde said. “Our current expectation nevertheless is that we’ll have the opportunity to take delivery of all Norwegian aircraft by the top of this yr, or through the first half of 2025 on the very latest.”
There’s a knock-on effect on planned upgrades of Norway’s TR-2 configuration aircraft, with the impact on the schedule still unclear, Lunde said. The delays pose a risk to reaching full operational capability in 2025, though the most important risk to that milestone is a scarcity of trained maintenance personnel, he said.
To achieve full operational capability, Norway requires each a sufficient variety of air frames, in addition to the capabilities of TR-3, including integration of the Joint Strike Missile, based on Lunde. The JSM is a cruise missile being developed by Kongsberg and RTX, designed to be launched from the F-35′s internal weapons bay.
Belgium, which had expected to receive its first two F-35s in 2023, said in December it now counts on eight jets to be delivered for training of Belgian pilots and engineers starting this summer. Poland can also be scheduled to receive its first F-35 this yr, after ordering 32 planes in 2020.
The U.K. has received 35 aircraft of 48 expected by the top of 2025, and in December formed its second squadron to operate the F-35 Lightning II. The 13 aircraft due by the top of next yr are within the TR-3 configuration, and the U.K. is working with the F-35 joint program office to know the impact of the delay.
“We don’t currently anticipate a shortfall in the flexibility to construct the U.K. Lightning force to full operational capability,” the Ministry of Defence said.
The Danish defense ministry has said it doesn’t expect the problems to affect the planned donation of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, while Norway said F-35 delays won’t impact delivery of F-16s to international partners, either through sale or donation.
F-35 customers | Delivered as of March 18, 2024 (source: Lockheed Martin) |
Program of record |
---|---|---|
Belgium | 0 | 34 |
Denmark | 10 | 27 |
Italy | 24 | 90 |
Netherlands | 39 | 52 |
Norway | 40 | 52 |
U.K. | 35 | 138 |
Andrew Chuter in London contributed to this story.
Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He began his profession at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.