Boeing Forecasts Global Freighter Fleet to Reach 4,010 by 2045

Boeing forecast the global freighter fleet will reach 4,010 aircraft by 2045, up from 2,395 in 2025. The company also projected average annual air-cargo demand growth of 3.5% over the period.

Key details

• Boeing estimates that 2,930 new and converted freighters will support fleet growth and replace retiring aircraft over 20 years; 55% would add capacity and about 45% would replace aircraft.
• The projection includes 2,000 passenger-aircraft conversions and 930 new-production freighters.
• Boeing projects 1,140 standard-body, 915 medium-widebody and 875 large-widebody freighters among those aircraft.
• Boeing forecasts integrators’ share of the freighter market will rise from 16% to 24%, citing demand for express services.
• Boeing’s projected annual cargo-demand growth is 3.5%, compared with 2.5% over the preceding decade.

Boeing projects 2,000 passenger-aircraft conversions and 930 new-production freighters over 20 years.

Why it matters

The forecast points to demand for freighters across multiple aircraft sizes, with passenger-aircraft conversions accounting for a larger portion of projected deliveries than new-production models. For US airlines, cargo operators and aircraft-conversion businesses, the mix offers a measure of the fleet capacity Boeing expects the market to need.

What happens next

Boeing’s 20-year outlook sets out a long runway for freighter additions and conversions. Which aircraft size do you think will shape the next phase of cargo growth?