CHRISTCHURCH, Recent Zealand — Despite China’s notorious secrecy surrounding all things defense, there are indications it’s making progress on a sixth-generation fighter.
Perhaps the clearest admission got here from a WeChat social media post by Aviation Industry Corporation of China in January 2019. In an interview discussing sixth-gen fighters, Wang Haifeng, the chief designer at AVIC subsidiary Chengdu Aerospace Corp., said preparations were underway to research a combat aircraft that may be able to “protect the ocean and sky” by 2035.
On the time, Wang mentioned elements like manned-unmanned teaming, the usage of artificial intelligence, in addition to improved stealth and omnidirectional sensors.
In 2022, the pinnacle of U.S. Air Combat Command said those efforts are “on course.”
“By and huge, they see it [sixth-gen fighter technology] greatly the way in which we see it by way of an exponential reduction in signature and exponential acceleration in processing power and sensing, and the power to iterate by way of open-mission systems, to give you the option to essentially reprogram on the speed of relevance,” Gen. Mark Kelly said.
Fast forward to the current, and Rick Joe, who has written extensively concerning the Chinese military, considers the sixth-gen efforts a program of record, noting that “indicators since 2019 within the semiofficial space have only increased.” Examples include AVIC artwork depicting generic next-gen fighter configurations, academic papers, and statements from military and industry officials. As well as, satellite imagery of a tailless fighter-like airframe was seen at Chengdu Aerospace facilities in October 2021.
Joe told Defense News that demonstrator testbeds, possibly subscale versions, have already flown.
For lack of an official name, he referred to the mysterious fighter because the J-XD. “I fully expect the J-XD to have some subsystems (like engines), which might be less capable than a U.S. equivalent initially, just because there are some domains where they’re still catching up, albeit with significant closing of gaps over the past few a long time.”
Joe noted that sixth-gen fighters are typically expected to incorporate aerodynamic design and control; radiofrequency materials; flight control software; sensing technologies; data-linking and combat-management systems; weapons; and the combination of collaborative combat aircraft, or complementary drones.
“I see them as playing in the final ballpark of other nations pursuing a sixth-gen capability,” Joe said.
But when Defense News asked Brendan Mulvaney, the director of the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, whether China currently has the potential to develop these advanced fighters, the response was barely less optimistic for Beijing.
“Today? No. Twenty years from now? Absolutely. And we’ve seen this time and time again. We’re recuperating at not … underestimating what the Chinese system is able to when it sets its mind to it,” Mulvaney said.
The official said mastering jet engines has been China’s bane, but it surely is recuperating. “At the tip of the day, that’s just science. I tell those that physics works the identical in Berlin because it does in Beijing. So in the event you put enough effort and time … you’ll be able to make aerospace engine, especially for the military side.”
Working with drones
Mulvaney said China has described its future fighter as unmanned, but he believes the design is more likely optionally manned, because it will depend on how quickly industry can develop AI systems, alongside other requisite technologies. “You don’t must have a person [in it] and also you potentially let it go off by itself, or it could function a loyal wingman.”
China’s drone manufacturers are ambitious, but it surely’s not entirely clear where that technology stands by way of complementing a future sixth-gen fighter. Notably, Joe said, Chinese-made combat drones and collaborative combat aircraft which have appeared at air shows are “likely not representative of actual in-development [unmanned combat aerial vehicles] intended for the [People’s Liberation Army], that are almost actually more ambitious in scope.”
He also said it’s fair to assume various sophisticated combat drones “are in advanced development/testing and even limited trial service.”
An by way of trialing manned-unmanned teaming, China’s existing J-20 fighter could contribute, because the country developed a twin-seat version where a backseat operator can control drones. Nevertheless, this variant is currently a technology demonstrator.
If the Chengdu Aerospace chief designer’s predictions of a sixth-gen fighter being operational in 2035 hold true, Joe said a maiden flight would wish to happen not less than five years before then, and thus a prototype would have to be ready around 2028. He expressed confidence this is feasible, although Mulvaney predicted it’s going to probably take China “until the late 2030s, if not the early 2040s,” to disclose a meaningful design.
Gordon Arthur is an Asia correspondent for Defense News. After a 20-year stint working in Hong Kong, he now resides in Recent Zealand. He has attended military exercises and defense exhibitions in about 20 countries across the Asia-Pacific region.