- United Airlines’ latest San Francisco to Manila route is a component of its latest expansion in Asia
- The Manila-San Francisco market may be very large, with over 400,000 passengers in 2019. Most passengers flew non-stop with Philippine Airlines, but a major number selected indirect flights for lower fares
- The typical fare for the Manila-San Francisco route is lower than many other Asia routes, reflecting lower premium demand. Despite the longer distance in comparison with Tokyo-San Francisco, Manila fares are lower than half as high
United Airlines has announced San Francisco to Manila, an element of its latest big expansion in Asia. Operating alongside Philippine Airlines, United shall be the one US carrier to serve the country from the US mainland after Delta ended its one-stop, same-plane Detroit-Tokyo-Manila service in 2017. While United continues to serve Manila from Guam, a US territory, and Palau, its mainland operation led to 1998.
United Airlines: San Francisco to Manila
On October twenty ninth, United will take off from its Pacific hub in San Francisco to Manila. It is going to use the 350-seat Boeing 777-300ER, which is very good for the high passenger volume, but lower fares, related to the market.
The non-stop route will operate day by day, covering 6,987 miles (11,244 km). It’s scheduled as follows, with all times local:
- San Francisco to Manila: UA191, 00:35-06:50+1 (15h 15m block time)
- Manila to San Francisco: UA190, 09:55-07:20 (12h 25m; same day arrival)
Image: GCMap.
400,000+ passengers in 2019
The Manila-San Francisco point-to-point market is gigantic. In response to booking data, it had roughly 410,000 roundtrip passengers in 2019, such as 561 passengers day by day each way (PDEW), excluding seasonality. It was Manila’s second hottest North America market after Los Angeles.
The bulk flew non-stop with Philippine Airlines, which – when United begins – also can even serve it day by day using the 777-300ER. Nonetheless, a considerable amount of the market – around 175,000 passengers – flew not directly, often chasing the bottom fares.
Photo: Vincenzo Pace | Easy Flying.
While traffic volume was high, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that fares weren’t, especially for the space. As a consequence of being so driven by visiting friends and relatives (VFR) demand, the common one-way fare in 2019 was barely $460 (excluding taxes). Nonetheless, passengers paid a premium to fly non-stop.
Fares are lower than 50% of Tokyo-San Francisco
Despite being around 1,900 miles longer than Tokyo-San Francisco, Manila’s fare was well under half as high, reflecting far lower premium demand.
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While Manila-San Francisco is 36% longer in distance than Tokyo, its average fare was 57% lower. United should not have any problem filling its 777s to Manila – including transit passengers over its California hub – but at what cost?
Photo: Vincenzo Pace I Easy Flying.
3.4 million passengers in 2019
Booking data highlights that 3.4 million people flew between Manila and the US/Canada in 2019. It was the fifth largest Asia-US/Canada market after China, Japan, India, and South Korea. Based on point-to-point demand, the highest 10 Manila airport pairs were as follows. ‘Served/unserved’ info refers to the remainder of 2023:
- Los Angeles: 610,000
- San Francisco: 410,000
- Recent York JFK: 225,000
- Toronto: 205,000
- Vancouver: 160,000
- Chicago O’Hare: 105,000
- Honolulu: 88,000
- Seattle: 83,000
- Calgary: 78,000
- Edmonton: 67,000
Calgary and Edmonton could also be surprising, but demand from Canada has grown strongly in recent times. There are around 900,000 Filipinos and people of that ancestry in Canada, with demand from VFR, Filipino medical professionals (especially nurses), and students.
Will you be flying United’s coming Manila service? Tell us within the comments.