The collection of United Launch Alliance and SpaceX in 2020 as U.S. national security launch providers was hailed because the dawn of a brand new era of assured access to space, because of a competitive business industry.
Because it prepares to award the subsequent round of National Security Space Launch (NSSL) contracts, the Space Force isn’t any longer comfortable counting on just two firms.
The U.S. Air Force 4 years ago insisted it only desired to work with two launch providers despite pressure from recent entrant Blue Origin and its congressional supporters so as to add a 3rd contractor to NSSL Phase 2. Military officials on the time argued that there was insufficient demand to justify three providers and that it will be too costly for the federal government to subsidize that many.
The environment has since modified, and the Space Force now finds itself within the unfamiliar position of getting to compete for access to business rockets.
While a key goal of NSSL Phase 2 was to prop up the domestic launch industry and increase competition, in NSSL Phase 3, the Space Force is attempting to lock-in supply amid concerns about growing business demand.
“We desired to make sure that that we essentially hedged against the launch scarcity that might occur,” said Col. Chad Melone, chief of launch procurement and integration on the Space Systems Command.
A launch supply crunch is being forecasted within the latter a part of this decade when Amazon might be deploying its Project Kuiper web constellation on ULA, Blue Origin and Arianespace rockets. NSSL Phase 3 will procure launch services for missions to be launched within the 2027-2032 timeframe.
Whereas ULA and SpaceX are splitting just 35 missions in NSSL Phase 2, the Space Force is forecasting as many as 88 in Phase 3, including 30 that might be put aside for smaller rockets. A 3rd heavy-lift provider might be sought to challenge ULA and SpaceX.
Col. Douglas Pentecost, deputy program executive officer of assured access to space, said the Phase 3 strategy also seeks to guard the federal government from industry volatility.
He alluded to the small launch market, where a seemingly thriving enterprise today could vanish tomorrow. “There might be a grounding event, or something happens to the corporate. You never know.”
To draw more competitors, the Space Force split NSSL Phase 3 into two tracks. Lane 1 caters to smaller launchers and might be open to any provider that has flown a payload to orbit. Lane 2 requires heavy-lift launchers that may fly payloads to essentially the most difficult orbits. A brand new entrant can win a Lane 2 contract if it submits a reputable roadmap.
“We’re being very broad in our interpretation of how we’re getting after assured access by opening up additional beachheads,” Melone said.
The Lane 2 portion of NSSL creates a significant opportunity for Blue Origin’s still-in-development Recent Glenn. The federal government pays each Lane 2 provider as much as $100 million annually to cover NSSL-unique expenses. This could help Jeff Bezos’ company, for instance, construct a West Coast launch pad.
Having three providers in Lane 2 would make the Space Force less depending on SpaceX — currently the one company capable of fly NSSL payloads while ULA’s Vulcan stays hobbled by delays and is now expected to conduct its first launch later this yr. Up to now, the Space Force has assigned 15 missions to ULA under Phase 2. Those missions would start flying in 2024.
Within the Phase 3 strategy, said Melone, “we checked out the warfighter needs and what is occurring within the industry writ large.”
Lane 1 goals to leverage medium-lift rockets currently in development by firms like Rocket Lab and Relativity. Lane 1 missions would require flying 15,000 kilos (6,800 kilograms) to low Earth orbit, and firms can propose to launch those missions in single or multiple flights. That might open the door to small rockets within the one-ton category like Firefly’s Alpha.
The essential customer of Lane 1 missions might be the Space Development Agency, which plans to deploy a big LEO constellation over the subsequent several years.
Melone acknowledged that there are not any guarantees that the Phase 3 policy gambit will produce the intended results. Still, the Space Force is decided to leverage the business industry as much as possible. “There are still loads of uncertainties on the market,” he said.