MILAN — The US’ dominance of the combat aircraft industry could see increased competition because the French hope to bolster their slice of the pie. With a German veto blocking Eurofighter deliveries to Saudi Arabia, and amid Israel’s persistent opposition to any F-35 sale to Qatar, this will be French firm Dassault’s opportunity to further push its fighter within the region.
In July, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu visited Qatar where he met with the emir in hopes of strengthening their strategic partnership through operational and industrial cooperation.
Following the trip, reports emerged that Qatar may opt to buy an extra 24 Rafale from Dassault, which might bring the country’s fleet to 60, having acquired an initial batch of 24 in 2015 and one other 12 in 2017. Although Qatar’s Defense Ministry hasn’t announced its decision, analysts have told Defense News reminiscent of sale appears likely.
“That they might come back to the table searching for one other order is comparatively unsurprising considering they have already got the Rafale in addition to one other French-designed and -built type — the Mirage 2000-5 — of their fighter inventory,” said Dan Darling, the director of military and defense markets at Forecast International.
Qatar would desire a fleet of 60 Rafales for 2 reasons, Darling explained: for stronger deterrence capabilities and for political purposes. There may be a political element attached to major defense purchases, he said, where Qatar “buys” influence with the exporting nation and vice versa.
Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at Aerodynamic Advisory who has tracked aircraft programs for greater than 30 years, agrees the diplomatic advantages are key.
“They [the Qatari government] view fighter aircraft as a chance to buy a strategic relationship, and given their recent history with Gulf neighbors, these are extremely essential for Qatar,” he said, referring to a recent diplomatic crisis that saw several nations accuse Doha of funding terrorist groups. “It isn’t [about] the Rafales.”
Experts, nevertheless, diverge over who could possibly be the subsequent customer of the Rafale within the greater Middle East. For Aboulafia, Saudi Arabia appears to be the logical contender, even when the U.S. agrees to sell F-35s to the dominion.
“They [Saudis] already source F-15s from the U.S. and naturally want F-35s. But as they’re desirous to proceed their dual-source decision, they’ll need to buy one other aircraft from one other provider. Eurofighter tranche 2 is on hold. There’s really no one else aside from France,” he said.
Earlier this summer, while Germany relaxed arms restrictions on Saudi Arabia, it remained firm in blocking deliveries of the Eurofighter to the dominion. The dual-engine aircraft is made by a consortium of French firm Airbus, British business BAE Systems and Italian company Leonardo.
Germany’s decision appeared to have irked the U.K., given 4 years ago the British foreign secretary demanded Germany lift its restraints on weapons transfers because they stood to harm the British defense industry. BAE Systems is one among the biggest private sector employers in Saudi Arabia, where it employs 5,300 Saudis — 57% of its total workforce there.
Although Germany’s Eurofighter veto may benefit Dassault within the absence of other competition, Darling said Saudi Arabia may not have a vested interest within the French jet since it fairly recently purchased greater than 80 American-made F-15 fighters, upgraded legacy versions, and has expressed interest in buying the F-35 and joining the Global Combat Air Program. The latter is a trilateral effort involving the U.K., Japan and Italy to develop a sixth-generation fighter.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Iran are attempting to enhance diplomatic relations, with the latter’s foreign affairs minister visiting the dominion Aug. 17. Nonetheless, Gaspard Schnitzler, a research fellow on the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, said it’s unlikely this may hinder or stop France from selling the Rafale to Saudi Arabia.
It’s possible pressure from public opinion or potential monetary risks could interfere with such a sale, “but we’ve to bear in mind that for years now, the Gulf has been one among the key export areas for French weapons,” he added.
A more probable export opportunity for the Rafale, besides in Qatar, can be a top-up order by Egypt in light of the collapsed cope with Russia for Su-35 aircraft that fell through over U.S. sanctions, said Darling. Cairo last placed an order for 30 additional Rafales in 2021, bringing its fleet number to 54.
But irrespective of how well-placed the Rafale seems, an extra order from Qatar or its neighbors doesn’t necessarily signal a declining demand for the fifth-generation fighter. Aboulafia and and Darling agreed that F-35 interest within the Middle East stays strong.
Several Arab states would indeed purchase the F-35 were it not for Israel’s strict opposition. For example, Qatar in 2020 reportedly made a proper request for the Lockheed Martin jet, which was closely followed by Israel declaring it will oppose any F-35 sale by the U.S. to the Gulf country. A concrete deal has yet to materialize.
“The major query is whether or not the U.S. would even be willing to sell the F-35 to Doha. It has been wary about F-35 sales to Arab states, primarily due to its commitment to making sure Israel’s qualitative military edge over its neighbors and rivals within the region,” Darling said.
The identical approach has applied to Saudi Arabia’s interest within the F-35.
“Saudi Arabia would love F-35s, but unless the Biden administration offers them as a part of a deal that involves normalized relations with Israel, it won’t occur for a number of more years no less than,” Aboulafia said. “None of those difficulties are in play in Europe, so European countries can just order F-35s without worry about disapproval.”
Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide selection of topics related to military procurement and international security, and focuses on reporting on the aviation sector. She is predicated in Milan, Italy.