Deliveries from the top-five business jet OEMs are forecast to leap by 17 percent from an estimated 575 in 2023 to 670 deliveries in 2024, in line with investment research firm Jefferies. This might surpass the 652 delivered in 2019, in line with the analyst.
Leading this growth are recent programs—including Gulfstream’s flagship G700, which is anticipated to soon enter service, and Dassault Aviation’s Falcon 6X—together with an easing of the supply-chain headwinds, Jefferies added.
“[Gulfstream parent General Dynamics (GD)] advantages essentially the most on deliveries and blend, while [Textron] sees more moderate growth,” Jefferies said. The delay in G700 certification, which had been targeted by year-end 2023, pushed a minimum of 15 G700 deliveries into 2024.
Within the Jefferies outlook, Gulfstream deliveries would increase from the estimated 114 in 2023 to 155 on this yr. Jefferies equity research analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu estimated that Gulfstream has built 49 G700s to date, 30 of that are forecast to be delivered this yr. As well as, the Jefferies outlook anticipates G800 certification later this yr, with 10 of those handed over by year-end.
Because of this, GD’s Aerospace group is poised for a 39 percent EBIT growth in 2024. While anticipating a solid bounce for GD, Jefferies cautioned that a holdup in certification puts in danger G700/G800 deliveries and a minimum of $2.3 billion in revenues this yr.
As for Dassault, Jefferies sees a gradual increase from 32 business jets in 2022 to 35 in 2023 after which 52 this yr. Overall, the business jet market is anticipated to keep up a book-to-bill of 1:1 with each pricing and sales softening in 2024.