- The U.S. Air Force originally wanted to construct 80–100 B-21 Raider bombers.
- Nevertheless, the world has modified dramatically because the B-21 was announced in 2016.
- The unique variety of bombers can be hard-pressed to satisfy each conventional and nuclear missions in a serious war.
The B-21 Raider bomber, which has been under tight wraps since 2016, made its long-awaited first flight on November 10. Now that the bomber is definitely flying, it’s value asking: what number of stealth bombers does america really want?
With China, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and North Korea all dominating the headlines for one reason or one other, the 80–100 bombers the U.S. Air Force originally wanted to construct now looks like a mere start line.
The Difference 7 Years Can Make
The B-21 Raider bomber was announced in 2016 to great fanfare, and was meant to switch the B-1B Lancer bomber and B-2A Spirit bombers. As of 2023, the typical age of the B-1B bomber fleet is 34.5 years, while the typical age of the B-2A fleet is 27.35 years. Each bombers have long been out of production, and the B-1B particularly suffers from maintenance issues, as contractors that originally supplied spare parts aren’t any longer in business. There may be also the difficulty that the planes suffer from dated technology that makes them less able to penetrating enemy airspace as originally intended: bombing a goal, after which sneaking away.
The B-21 will serve alongside the B-52J, an updated version of the B-52 Stratofortress bomber, 76 of that are still flying. The B-21 was originally envisioned because the penetrating bomber, while the B-52J was the non-penetrating bomber that might bomb targets in a permissive environment (think: Afghanistan or Iraq), or launch salvoes of long-range conventional or nuclear missiles from beyond enemy radar and missile range.
Since 2016, the rivalry between China and america has grown more intense, and China has doubled its variety of deployed nuclear weapons. The USA can also be locked in a proxy war with Russia, imposing strict sanctions on Moscow in consequence of its invasion of Ukraine; a brand new Cold War with Putin’s Russia appears all but inevitable. At the identical time, North Korea now has intercontinental ballistic missiles that may reach america, while Iran is using its proxies within the Middle East to strike American targets, while continuing its nuclear weapons program.
Across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, the prospects for long-term peace haven’t improved since 2016—they’ve gotten substantially worse. Assuming all of this changes the strategic calculus and we want more bombers, exactly what number of can we really want?
How Many Bombers for a Nuclear War?
Let’s examine the nuclear mission first. Lots of the U.S. Air Force’s bombers have each conventional and nuclear roles. A B-2 bomber, for instance, could launch JASSM-ER cruise missiles with conventional warheads at Chinese targets someday and drop B83 thermonuclear gravity bombs on Russian targets the following. Still, only a subset of the Air Force’s heavy bomber force has a nuclear role: while all 20 out of 20 B-2s are nuclear-capable, not one of the 45 remaining B-1B Lancer bombers and only 40 of the 76 B-52H bombers can carry nuclear weapons. That leaves 60 out of 141 bombers for nuclear missions.
If the U.S. does go to war with Russia, or China, or Russia and China, it must hold back plenty of bombers and keep them on alert 24/7, armed with nuclear weapons and able to fly. A standard war between nuclear powers could escalate right into a nuclear war quickly, and bombers on conventional combat missions would probably be unable to return in time to rearm them with nukes. By the point they flew back to the continental United States, there is likely to be no base left to return to.
As of 2023, Russia has deployed 1,674 nuclear weapons, while China has deployed about 410, and North Korea between 35 and 65. China is currently launched into a nuclear buildup that the Pentagon believes will bring the whole variety of deployed nuclear weapons to 1,500 by 2035. North Korea is probably going expanding its nuclear arsenal, though as a poor country, there’ll eventually be a limit to what number of weapons it may well deploy at anyone time.
Sixty nuclear-capable bombers is presumably the minimum number the Air Force thinks it must tackle nuclear war scenarios involving Russia, China, and North Korea. The Air Force must also consider the likelihood, nonetheless low, that sooner or later, it might be forced to fight each Russia and China at the identical time. If the Chinese arsenal increases by 66 percent, we’d need a corresponding increase within the minimum variety of bombers, plus a handful of extras. Because of this, we’d need to bump the variety of nuclear-capable bombers up from 60 to 90, with all 40 B-52Js and 50 B-21s put aside on nuclear alert.
How Many Bombers for Conventional War?
In a standard war, the Air Force’s bombers can be used as missile trucks, lobbing missiles at enemy targets from long range. The entire Air Force’s existing bombers—a complete of 141 B-1s, B-2s, and B-52s—can perform conventional combat missions. Most of today’s bombers, just like the B-52H and B-1B, are higher off lobbing cruise missiles at enemy targets, while the B-2 can still penetrate enemy airspace.
If we assume the Air Force replaces B-1 bombers with B-21 bombers on a 1:1 basis, that offers us a requirement for 45 B-21s. Again, we might need to fight a standard war against each Russia and China at the identical time, or on the very least, fight one while deterring the opposite. We would consider boosting the variety of B-21s for conventional operations by 50 percent, giving us a complete of 67 B-21s.
That’s not an unreasonably high number, but to throw a wrench into this, the Air Force has also stated the B-21 is built with other missions in mind, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and electronic attack missions. Some studies envision it with a maritime strike role within the Asia-Pacific, sowing minefields near mainland China and hunting down warships of the Chinese navy. We would add an extra ten bombers per mission, for a complete of 97 B-21s for conventional missions.
All in all, our back-of-the-envelope calculations reveal the U.S. can buy about 147 B-21 Raider bombers, plus 76 B-52Js, for a complete of 223 heavy bombers. That’s significantly higher than the 80–100 B-21s batted around when the bomber was first announced, but fewer than the 290 bombers the Air Force could call on at the top of the Cold War.
The Takeaway
The world of 2023 is more dangerous than the world of 2016. The world of 2029, right around when the primary B-21s enter service, is likely to be much more dangerous still. The primary mission of the bombers ought to be to discourage war; the second mission ought to be to fight if deterrence fails. Fewer bombers in peacetime is sensible, but more bombers in tense times to discourage adversaries and make war less likely is sensible, too.