WASHINGTON — The Air Force’s next nuclear missile program has exceeded its planned costs severely enough to trigger a report back to Congress, potentially putting this system’s survival in danger.
The Northrop Grumman-made LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile has overrun its initial cost projections and incurred a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach, an Air Force spokesperson confirmed to Defense News. The Air Force notified Congress in regards to the breach Thursday.
The Office of the Secretary of Defense will now review the Sentinel program, the Air Force said, and can resolve whether to restructure this system, or cancel it entirely.
“Work under the present contract will proceed until OSD completes its review of the Sentinel program,” the Air Force spokesperson said. “Maintaining a robust nuclear deterrent is critical to safeguarding our nation and protecting our allies from a nuclear attack.”
The Sentinel program is planned to interchange the Air Force’s Cold War-era LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBM as a part of the U.S. nuclear triad. Northrop Grumman in 2020 received a $13.3 billion contract to construct Sentinel, and this system was originally expected to cost about $96 billion.
The per-unit total cost for the Sentinel was $118 million when this system’s cost, schedule and performance goals in 2020, the Air Force said. Since then, that has grown at the least 37% to about $162 million, triggering this cost overrun process.
A critical Nunn-McCurdy breach is asserted when a significant defense acquisition program’s cost grows 25% over the present cost targets or at the least 50% over the unique cost. The Defense Department must notify Congress when such a significant cost overrun occurs and certify this system is crucial to national security and must proceed.
The Pentagon can even should certify to Congress that there aren’t any cheaper alternatives to the Sentinel program, that the brand new cost estimates are reasonable, that it’s a better priority than other programs whose funding could possibly be cut to cover the price growth, and that this system’s management structure can control further cost growth. If that certification doesn’t occur, this system could be terminated.
William LaPlante, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said in an announcement that “Sentinel is one among the department’s largest, most complex programs” and the Pentagon has taken several steps to assist it.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in December 2022 declared the Sentinel program one among the Pentagon’s most vital and gave it priority in the provision chain, LaPlante said. He also said that in 2023 he approved changes to its acquisition strategy meant to maintain it on schedule.
“We’re prepared to satisfy the department’s statutory responsibilities [in light of the Nunn-McCurdy declaration] and conduct a sturdy review of this system to find out what aspects caused the price growth,” LaPlante said. “As we achieve this, we’ll keep our partners in Congress informed and maintain open communications to the best extent possible.”
Northrop Grumman, the prime contractor on Sentinel’s engineering and manufacturing development phase, said in an announcement to Defense News it’s making “significant progress” on this system and reaching milestones to mature its design and reduce risk.
“As a part of our work on the EMD contract, our team is committed to supporting the Air Force because it assesses and updates acquisition cost forecasts for the long run phases of this system, to incorporate construction projects, production, and deployment of the weapon system,” Northrop Grumman said. “We’re focused on continuing to perform and meet our commitments under the EMD contract as we move toward delivery of this essential national security capability.”
The date Sentinel might reach initial operational capability is also now prone to slip by two years, the Air Force said. Sentinel was originally expected to achieve IOC in 2029. The Government Accountability Office warned last 12 months that deadline would likely slip until about spring 2030, and this system now appears to be falling further behind schedule.
The Air Force said the IOC delay can even be reviewed as a part of the Nunn-McCurdy process.
The service noted the majority of Sentinel’s cost growth is coming in its command and launch segment, probably the most complex a part of this system.
This includes constructing greater than 400 recent launch facilities and laying 1000’s of miles of fiber optic networks, the Air Force added, in addition to acquiring everlasting and temporary real estate easements from a whole lot of landowners.
The Sentinel program can even need to construct greater than 7,500 miles of utility corridors across missile wings spanning five states, the Air Force said, while keeping 400 ICBMs on alert.
The Air Force said it has not seen similarly severe cost growth within the missile itself.
Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall in November 2023 said the Sentinel program was “struggling” and its costs might rise.
Kendall called the dimensions and complexity of the Sentinel program “probably the largest thing … that the Air Force has ever taken on,” highlighting the development of launch complexes, real estate development and civil engineering work as particular challenges.
Stephen Losey is the air warfare reporter for Defense News. He previously covered leadership and personnel issues at Air Force Times, and the Pentagon, special operations and air warfare at Military.com. He has traveled to the Middle East to cover U.S. Air Force operations.