Starship Lunar Lander Refueling Estimate Ranges From 6 to 22 Flights

Charlie Precourt, a member of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, said the latest estimate calls for about 22 Starship flights to support the lunar lander through propellant refueling. Elon Musk disputed that estimate and said the number would be closer to 6 to 8 flights.

The estimates differ by as many as 16 Starship flights.

What has been confirmed

The estimates come from a panel member’s comments and Musk’s response, as described in the cited report. The fact set marks both figures as likely, not officially confirmed, and records the flight-count estimate as disputed. The count depends on how much cryogenic propellant boils off during orbital storage and how efficiently vehicles can transfer propellant to one another. The cited report says NASA is targeting a crewed lunar landing in 2028.

Why it matters

The difference between the estimates affects how many Starship flights the lunar-lander plan may require for refueling. Orbital refueling would let a lander carry propellant from Earth orbit toward the Moon, but the cited figures remain estimates rather than a confirmed flight plan.

FlyMarshall context

Commercial aviation depends on predictable aircraft performance, fuel planning, and repeatable operations. Spaceflight refueling presents a different set of engineering demands: vehicles must store extremely cold propellants in orbit and transfer them between spacecraft. The reported uncertainties show why flight-count estimates can change as engineers refine system performance.

What happens next

The cited report does not provide a confirmed final flight count or a new milestone date for resolving the propellant-storage and transfer questions. NASA’s reported target for a crewed lunar landing remains 2028.