Aviation Week Forecast Sees 1,860 New Aircraft Deliveries in 2027

Aviation Week’s 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast projects 1,860 new-aircraft deliveries next year. Its outlook also estimates 3.6% annual compound growth in aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) over the next decade.

Key details

• The forecast puts average aircraft retirements at about 942 per year from 2026 through 2035, with the peak in 2031.
• Aviation Week reported 221 retirements of CFM56-powered aircraft in 2026 as of October 20, representing about 1.9% of that fleet.
• GE Aerospace CFO Rahul Ghai said the company expected CFM56 retirements of 1.5% to 2% for the year, below its earlier estimate of 2% to 3%.
• Safran CEO Olivier Andriès said CFM56 retirement rates were expected to remain low in 2026 and increase gradually in subsequent years.
• RTX’s Collins Aerospace reported third-quarter commercial aftermarket sales growth of 9%, including 18% growth in upgrades and modifications.
• The article said United Airlines planned to take more than 100 narrowbody aircraft and about 25 widebody aircraft in 2027. It also reported Southwest Airlines was on track to receive 67 aircraft and retire 60 during 2026.

Aviation Week projects 1,860 new-aircraft deliveries in 2027.

Why it matters

The forecast points to sustained work for aircraft maintenance providers as airlines continue to add aircraft and older fleets remain in service. Collins Aerospace’s reported growth in aftermarket sales and upgrades offers a current measure of that activity.

What happens next

Aviation Week’s forecast anticipates gradual increases in CFM56 retirements after 2026. It describes near-term MRO demand as strong, while leaving medium-term demand uncertain.